The Jurickson Profar Manifesto

profar
I knocked on the door, he yelled ‘come in’. His eyes were glued to the tube. We were both reeling from the sting of being woefully incorrect about the last time we met, for the“Elvis Andrus Trade Manifesto”.

We discussed the possibility of re-doing it, but too many people saw it, and that would be tacky. After some thorough research, we arrived at where we are today, part two of the Manifestos, which we hope won’t be as errant as the first round.

At SDI we have discussed Profar for a while, he was our #1 prospect last year. I even clamored for him to be extended a year ago before he was even called-up.

He was a factor in the positional outlook earlier this spring. Jeff Johnson tried to figure out  where Profar fits into this line-up whenever Berkman signed.

Peter Ellwood explained how Profar would’ve been a monumentally bad trade for Zack Greinke last summer. Chris Kautz wrote about the beauty of Profar being‘creamed’ by Elvis.

However, it was Bob Bland who laid out an outline for us with his “Profar Conundrum” last week.

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I had to wait for Edward to finish his show- New Girls, or something like that. He offered me a Mike’s Hard Pink Lemonade for me to bide my time as he finished his ever-important show. I declined.

He claims that he’d still be hovering around 280+ if he drank real alcohol. Hence, the hard lemonade. I hope this show ends soon, this is getting uncomfortable. Edward just overlaughed at something from the show and  some lemonade ran down his perfectly manicured facial hair.

The show concludes, he wipes his chin, and asks if we can do this ‘Profar Talk’ while he does P90X or something. You see, Edward just turned 30 yesterday, and the gray hairs are cropping up.

He’s has to do what needs to be done to keep his slim, young physique. Despite the oncoming gray hairs, Edward surprisingly looks like he’s 24. So good for him.

While doing something I would describe as a cross between an ab crunch and a jumping jack, Edward answers my first question.

How damaging is it for Profar to be left in Round Rock for most of the year?

I believe it could be more damaging for Texas than Profar. The old baseball proverb says “You can’t win your division in April,” but you can surely lose it. The Angels showed this last year as they started 6-14, and were nine games out of first place before they called up Mike Trout. Am I saying that the Rangers will be in similar position? No, but what if Mitch Moreland doesn’t put it all together and ends the season with a >1 rWAR season again like the previous three? The 2012 Texas Rangers lost the division by one game, yet playing Michael Young everyday cost the team at least two wins.

Bottom line: Need to play your best starting nine.

From Profar’s perspective, the damage will be minimal if he doesn’t see MLB action. BP’s Jason Parks has discussed at length that players don’t get a lot out of playing AAA and it can be damaging because the average AAA clubhouse is full of many disenchanted players who can’t cut it in bigs. This would be the only fear of Profar playing in AAA all season.

What other positions do you think Profar should get time at?

I know there are several people in our SDI group that think Profar should get a shot at centerfield, but I disagree. He has spent his entire minor league career playing either 2B or SS so I don’t understand this desire to stick him in the outfield. I get that some people want to get him on the field no matter what, but I believe that would be placing a square peg in a round hole. The combination of Gentry/Martin > Moreland, so it makes more sense to move Kinsler to 1B, Profar plays 2B.

(I have now been roped into his workout, I’m currently holding his ankles together as he rips off sets of various ab work-outs. I was cool with it until I realized he wasn’t wearing long socks, but rather just had very hairy legs.)

Who is more of a trade chip- Mike Olt or Profar?

Olt, no question. I fear that the Rangers may have held on to Olt for too long as his bat has been slightly exposed in limited MLB action, but he can still be a solid MLB 3B somewhere. He is blocked by Beltre here and if the Rangers decide to keep Profar, Kinsler will block him at 1B. I would still prefer to see the Rangers aim to trade Profar first and if that doesn’t work, see what Olt + others gets you.

Would you do the Profar/Taveras swap?

If this was to happen, Professor Parks would call this the “Great Special Unicorn Trade” as this is how he describes extremely talented prospects. I will go on record and say “Yes” to that trade though it wouldn’t be without reservations. The normal trade to make is unproven talent for proven, not unproven for unproven, but this trade seems to fit both teams. St. Louis needs a SS for the future while the Rangers fulfill a need to cement one of their up-the-middle positions (CF) with a guy that can hit in the middle of your lineup.

Keith Law says that Profar’s six years are worth more than Price or Stanton… so would you do it?

I would make the trade for either Stanton or Price. Assuming that this hypothetical trade is happening at the trade deadline, you would be getting either Stanton’s 3.5 years vs. Price’s 2.5 years. The reservation I would have obtaining Price is that there is almost zero chance of signing him to a long-term deal. I have pointed out many times that Texas has NEVER signed a big-time FA pitcher and until it happens, I will continue to shout that from the rooftops. On the other hand, the Rangers have a long history of signing quality bats because of their extreme hitter-friendly ballpark. I like the idea of penciling in Stanton in the middle of the lineup and mashing home-runs for the next decade in RBiA. The only way trading for Price works, is if the Rangers were to win the WS over the next three years.

(He is now finished with his workout, and heading for the shower, I ask questions from the toilet, Is this normal?)

Was extending Kinsler two years before it was needed a mistake (would’ve been a free agent after this yr) ?

Hindsight is always 20/20. Jon Daniels has a history of wanting to lock up players that he feels is the core: Young, Kinsler, Holland, Harrison and most recently Elvis. Kinsler’s rWAR each season from 2007-11: 4.1, 4.6, 6.0, 4.2 and 7.0. There was some uneasiness about the extension when he signed it  and I would say none were louder than you good sir. I’m sure if you were to ask JD back then if he really thought there was a good chance of locking up Elvis, he would say no. There was this fear that both could end up walking and for better or worse, teams do like to keep a couple of savvy veterans around for #leadership. All Kins needs to do is average three wins over the length of the contract which is something I think he can still do. I’ll go ahead and say he will bounce back this year and be worth at least four wins.

Who will be the Opening Day 2B for 2014? Who should be?

I will say that Profar will be the Rangers’ 2B and that is who it should be. Mitch Moreland has a grand total of 1.3 rWAR in his career (three seasons). Fans and someour very own writers tend to bend and squint when they look at Moreland because they desperately want to see a long-term contributor to this team. Guess what? It’s not going to happen. Kins needs to go ahead and start breaking in his first baseman’s mitt because that is his position real soon.

Appreciate you taking the time to come over Dan and gawk at my not-so-chiseled body. Can you hand me a towel?

Dan Allsup is a staff writer for Shutdown Inning. You can reach him on Twitter @DanAllsup, or email him at Dan.Allsup@shutdowninning.com

Eddie Middlebrook is the co-host of the podcast “Chin Music” and Junior Staff Writer for ShutDowninning. He can be reached at Eddie.Middlebrook@ShutDowninning.com or on Twitter @emiddlebrook 

Dan Allsup

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