Which Free Agent Is Worth The Risk?
The players on this list are the contracts for the last five off-seasons that exceeded $50 million in total contract value.
Now I will go over the current free agent class to see if they’re any similarities, and if there’s any potential moves to be made.
Robinson Cano– will probably be wildly over-paid, and will likely have a career arch and salary similar to Albert Pujols. His contract is not horrible yet- but there’s eight years for that deal to completely sour.
Jacoby Ellsbury– physically akin to Carl Crawford, so it’s reasonable to assume there’s similar risk involved here. You’ll find Crawford near the bottom of the list.
Shin-Soo Choo– Jayson Werth seems like a nice comparison here, both are good but flawed players with the potential for a few good seasons, but destined to not bring back full value.
Brian McCann– Victor Martinez is another easy comp here. V-Mart would have been even more valuable if he didn’t miss an entire season, but injury history can’t be swept under the rug- especially when dealing with catchers.
Masahiro Tanaka– these comparisons are becoming very easy, a Yu Darvish-like contract could be in the works, although I’d be quite surprised if Tanaka performed at the same level or was paid at the price Darvish was acquired at.
Ervin Santana– he’s poised to net a deal larger than AJ Burnett received five winters ago, but a comparable risk is attached to Santana for this winter. 100 million dollars is a real possibility here.
Matt Garza– he’s wild card for sure. Not having a draft pick attached to him will only help his price tag rise. I think there’s John Lackey potential here- that’s not a good thing either.
Curtis Granderson– there’s a chance he clears $50 million with his next deal. I think Grandy is the one guy here who could make a GM look like a genius. If he was fully healthy all last year he would probably be looking at a Werth-esque overpay. But since he was an injury magnet last year- a Nick Swisher type contract seems more plausible.
Happy free agency shopping everyone, just remember to keep your receipts!